New analysis of the IMPACT CKD study suggests that targeted screening, diagnosis and improved access to care for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) could bring about a significant reduction in the number of patients requiring dialysis across the UK.
Presented at the 2025 European Renal Association (ERA) congress (4–7 June, Vienna, Austria)—the analysis by AstraZeneca modelled outcomes for the UK population over a 25-year period (2022 to 2047). It assessed the combined effect of targeted screening, diagnosis, and better access to care and recommended treatments—including annual targeted screening for patients with comorbidities and over the age of 45 combined with 75% adherence to guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT).
IMPACT CKD is one of the first studies to examine and forecast the impact of CKD over a 25-year time horizon. It is part of AstraZeneca’s Accelerating Change Together (ACT) for CKD programme, which aims to improve understanding and outcomes of CKD worldwide.
The modelling projected improvements in health, including a 45% decrease in cardiovascular (CV) events and a 3.1% decrease in death events over 25 years in the UK. These outcomes were accompanied by a 34.7% projected reduction in dialysis use over the same period in the UK, one of the most resource-intensive treatment options in CKD care.
As a result, the UK is projected to save £13.8 billion in costs related to kidney replacement therapy (KRT) over 25 years—enough to fund more than two years’ worth of all NHS obesity-related care, or to clear the entire NHS maintenance backlog for 2024.
Fiona Loud, policy director at Kidney Care UK, said: “Screening, early diagnosis and treatment can provide patients with the opportunity to manage their condition, stay well for longer and avoid the distressing and disruptive reality of dialysis. Yet, far too often, CKD is only diagnosed once it has reached a critical stage. We need to change that—and that means urgent policy action to support early detection and ensure people can access the care they need. If we act now, there is a real opportunity to improve lives and help people remain active members of their families, communities and society.”
Tom Keith-Roach, president of AstraZeneca UK, added: “It’s clear there is an urgent need to act on CKD—not only to improve lives, but to build a stronger, more sustainable NHS. Earlier diagnosis and better treatment access could keep people healthier for longer, ease pressure on healthcare services, and boost net GDP contributions, adding £200 billion to the UK economy over 25 years. We believe that a five-year action plan for CVD is needed, with a focus on CKD, to help unlock long-term gains for patients, society and the environment.”
